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Southampton - Derby

Betting Analysis & Recommendations

🎯 Recommendation: 2

Risk Level: Очень высокий

Expected Value: 240.67%

📊 Key Factors:
✓ Отличный исторический ROI: 240.67% ✓ Сильная ценность: историческая вероятность 66.7% против подразумеваемой 50.0% ✓ Внимание: Отрицательный тренд ROI в последних матчах
⚠️ Risks:
⚠ Ограниченные исторические данные (3 матчей) ⚠ Высокая волатильность в тренде ROI
📈 Detailed Analysis:
На основе комплексного анализа 7 исторических матчей с похожими коэффициентами:

• Домашняя команда (2-1-1) vs Гостевая команда (2-0-1)
• Анализ ROI: Дома -20.00%, Ничья -42.29%, Гости 240.67%
• Оценка вероятностей: Победа дома 50.0%, Ничья 14.3%, Победа гостей 66.7%
• Текущая форма: Дома 0.77, Гости 0.30

Рекомендуемая ставка: 2 с уровнем уверенности 14%.
Ожидаемая доходность: 240.67% ROI на основе исторической эффективности.
Уровень риска: �������
Probability Analysis
Home: 50.0%
Draw: 14.3%
Away: 66.7%
Form & Advantage
Home Advantage: -16.7%
Form Difference: 0.47
Value Index: 160.45
Home Form 🔥: 0.77
Guest Form 🔥: 0.30
xG (H/A): 1.77 / 1.10
Current ROI
Home: -20.00%
Draw: -42.29%
Away: 240.67%
League Date/Time Home Team Away Team KF1 KFX KF2 1X2 Total2.5 BTS
england/championship 04/12/2026 04:00:00 Southampton Derby 1.60 4.04 5.11 +3=1-3 +4-3 +4-3

1X2

Total2.5

BTS

Southampton

 +2=1-1 +2-2 +2-2

Derby

 +2=0-1 +2-1 +2-1

Total

 +3=1-3 +4-3 +4-3

ROI Progression Analysis

# Date Match Result ROI (%) Investment Return
1 12.01.2025 Southampton vs Swansea 1 60.00% 1 1.60
2 17.01.2026 Southampton vs Hull 2 -20.00% 2 1.60
3 21.02.2026 Southampton vs Charlton X -46.67% 3 1.60
4 21.03.2026 Southampton vs Oxford Utd 1 -20.00% 4 3.20
5 11.04.2026 Southampton vs Derby 1 -4.00% 5 4.80
# Date Match Result ROI (%) Investment Return
1 12.01.2025 Southampton vs Swansea 1 -100.00% 1 0.00
2 12.08.2025 West Brom vs Derby 2 -100.00% 2 0.00
3 13.09.2025 West Brom vs Derby 2 -100.00% 3 0.00
4 17.01.2026 Southampton vs Hull 2 -100.00% 4 0.00
5 21.02.2026 Southampton vs Charlton X -19.20% 5 4.04
6 21.03.2026 Southampton vs Oxford Utd 1 -32.67% 6 4.04
7 03.04.2026 Coventry vs Derby 1 -42.29% 7 4.04
8 11.04.2026 Southampton vs Derby 1 -49.50% 8 4.04
9 11.04.2026 Southampton vs Derby 1 -55.11% 9 4.04
# Date Match Result ROI (%) Investment Return
1 12.08.2025 West Brom vs Derby 2 411.00% 1 5.11
2 13.09.2025 West Brom vs Derby 2 411.00% 2 10.22
3 03.04.2026 Coventry vs Derby 1 240.67% 3 10.22
4 11.04.2026 Southampton vs Derby 1 155.50% 4 10.22
League Date/Time Home Team Away Team KF1 KFX KF2 Score
england/fa-cup 01/12/2025 00:00:00

Southampton

 Swansea 1.61 4.22 5.04 3:0
england/championship 01/17/2026 00:00:00

Southampton

 Hull 1.60 4.09 5.30 1:2
england/championship 02/21/2026 00:00:00

Southampton

 Charlton 1.53 4.27 5.88 1:1
england/championship 03/21/2026 00:00:00

Southampton

 Oxford Utd 1.61 3.91 5.59 2:0
england/championship 04/11/2026 00:00:00

Southampton

Derby

 1.62 4.07 5.24 2:1
League Date/Time Home Team Away Team KF1 KFX KF2 Score
england/championship 09/13/2025 00:00:00 West Brom

Derby

 1.76 3.48 5.03 0:1
england/efl-cup 08/12/2025 00:00:00 West Brom

Derby

 1.69 3.67 4.99 1:2
england/championship 04/03/2026 00:00:00 Coventry

Derby

 1.62 4.06 5.28 3:2
england/championship 04/11/2026 00:00:00

Southampton

Derby

 1.62 4.07 5.24 2:1